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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still